Here’s my first prediction – Christopher Nolan is going to be employed as the janitor at this year’s Oscars because his masterpiece, Oppenheimer, is going to sweep the ceremony. There’s many exceptional films, actors and crew that have been nominated through every category, but it’s Oppenheimer that will take the cake. With a presence in 13 categories, including Best Picture, it’s poised to win at least 8 of those, with room for some surprise steals. The other big hitters are Poor Things with 11 nominations, Killers of the Flower Moon with 10 nominations and Barbie with 8 nods. As far as my predictions go, Oppenheimer will win the vast majority, especially in the big categories. The rest I feel will be very evenly spread – The Holdovers, Anatomy of a Fall, Maestro, Killers of the Flower Moon and American Fiction will go home with 1 award each if things go as expected. Barbie will win for Best Song and might win a second if it’s lucky. Look out for a standing ovation if Godzilla Minus One manages to take home Visual Effects, as that would be a widely celebrated achievement.
That being said, it’s the Oscars, and as we’ve seen it never goes 100% as planned. There will be shocks, surprises and big wins all around – it’s sure to be an incredible night.
My official prediction will be highlighted in RED
My personal choice will be highlighted in GREEN.
If you don’t see an option highlighted in GREEN that’s because it’s the same as my prediction.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Without a doubt in my mind, like with many of the below awards, Oppenheimer is a lock for this win. It’s not just the best film of the year, but one of the best in recent years, with not a single other film on this list coming close. If we’re playing devil’s advocate, American Fiction could benefit from a late push to win, or maybe Anatomy of a Fall could come out of nowhere and steal it. But who are we kidding? This is going one way and one way only, and I’ll die on this hill.
Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
All signs are pointing to Cillian Murphy for his remarkable performance in Oppenheimer, however don’t be surprised if this swings elsewhere. I mentioned in my review of The Holdovers, that if Paul Giamatti was nominated in another year where Cillian Murphy wasn’t he would take home the award. However, that could still happen this year – his performance is very heartwarming and endearing, and that could sway some voters. Despite Jeffrey Wright getting ample buzz for American Fiction, I just can’t see it going to anyone outside the aforementioned two.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
This is one of the toughest predictions of the night. It may be easy to say Lily Gladstone will win, and I think she will, but this is a neck-and-neck race between her and Emma Stone. Both put in complex, multi-layered performances that elevate their respective films, so both would be very deserving of the win. That being said, my personal pick is Sandra Hüller – her performance in Anatomy of a Fall is the most raw, grounded and mesmerising of the year, so she wins in my books. She does genuinely have a slight chance here, but with those two big names at the top, it’s going to be hard.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr. is on the cusp of being able to lock in his first ever Oscar win. However one man is stopping him, and that’s Ryan Gosling. Do I think Gosling’s performance in Barbie is one of the best of the year? Far from it. But alas, there’s a lot of hype and buzz surrounding his role, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the voters send the win his way. Like it or not, the fact that his performance is in Barbie doesn’t work in his favour, but it’s still a possibility. Even Robert De Niro could have an outside chance, although that’s a far reach. Mark Ruffalo was good, but I don’t see him having a shot.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, Rustin
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Go ahead and lock in Da’Vine Joy Randolph for this one, but don’t hold it against me if Emily Blunt sneaks through with the win. They are by far the two standout supporting performances of the year, but the most memorable is Randolph’s. She adds to the charm and wholesome vibes of The Holdovers in a way that makes he invaluable to the tone (not necessarily the story). Emily Blunt is amazing in Oppenheimer, but I think her impact amongst that stacked cast isn’t felt as much.
Directing
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Somehow, this is only the second time Christopher Nolan… THE Christopher Nolan… has ever been nominated for directing. If he can’t win for Oppenheimer, the project that may go down as his best-ever film, he won’t ever win. Thankfully, this is as good as set in stone as it could be… you’d think. Justine Triet and Martin Scorsese both did incredible jobs, but this award may as well already be on Nolan’s bedside table.
Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I’m beginning to sound like a broken record at this point… but it’s for good reason. Oppenheimer is one of the most breathtaking feats of cinematography that has ever been put to screen. This is the second time Hoyte Van Hoytema has been nominated, and this will almost certainly be his moment. Every frame of Oppenheimer is a work of art, a credit to Hoytema’s eye for true cinematic beauty.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
This is where things get very tricky. My personal pick is to no one’s surprise, Oppenheimer. However, as much as it may win it, I don’t think it’s going to walk away with it as easily as some other awards. This is the Academy’s time to give some love to another film, and I think they’ll take that opportunity. This could go in any direction, I believe American Fiction and The Zone of Interest have the best chance based on recent buzz, but don’t rule out Poor Things or even Barbie. It is unlikely that Barbie grabs it, but I’ve seen crazier things happen. Alas I’m going with my gut, and that says American Fiction is primed to bring it home, but Oppenheimer may go with a full sweep.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
This is it. This is the time for Anatomy of a Fall to shine. Dare I say this is more of a lock than Oppenheimer winning Best Picture. There’s no way Anatomy of a Fall comes second to any other nominee – it’s a flawlessly-written narrative with powerful, moving dialogue, and it doesn’t put a single foot wrong. Justine Triet managed to turn a 2.5-hour slow-burn investigation into one of the most gripping events of the year.
Animated Feature Film
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Despite some big animated films being nominated this year, I haven’t seen a single one of these films. It’s not for a lack of interest either, it just never lined up. That being said, I can only base my prediction on what all the whispers are saying, and all signs are pointing to Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
On a personal level, this is a tough one. The editing in Anatomy of a Fall is some of the best I’ve seen all year, if not THE best. The only thing standing in its way of a well-deserved win is Oppenheimer. Christopher Nolan’s epic is damn-near edited to perfection, with enormous scale and the signature Trinity Test sequence being worthy of the win on its own. If Anatomy of a Fall comes away with the win I’ll be over the moon, but for the sake of sticking with the big one, I’m backing Oppenheimer once again.
Music (Original Score)
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I’m running out of Oppenheimer screenshots to use for this post. I don’t know how many times I can praise this film, but now it’s Ludwig Göransson’s turn in the spotlight. His loud, booming score is a character in and of itself, heightening the tension and scale of the entire film. From beginning to end, every piece of music has been perfectly crafted for the respective scene. It’s a memorable score that’s synonymous with the film, and will almost certainly win him his second Oscar.
Music (Original Song)
“The Fire Inside”, Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken”, Barbie
“It Never Went Away”, American Fiction
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for my People)”, Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For”, Barbie
This is where Barbie will get its moment to shine, in one way or another. Billie Eilish’s hit song, “What Was I Made For” is by far the most memorable song on this list. Whether you’ve seen Barbie or not, there’s almost no way you haven’t come across this song, which says a lot. Not only is it a great song on its own, it works in tandem with the themes and messages of the film itself. “I’m Just Ken” could be the one to take it, although that’s the more flashy song… so it’ll probably be passed on.
Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
You know the drill – Oppenheimer is incredible and this is a lock. There could be room for a surprise, especially with the presence of Maestro (a music-based film) and The Creator (benefiting from a sci-fi soundscape). As much as they have a shot, they don’t hold a flame to the intensity of the sound in Oppenheimer’s loudest and most impressive sequences.
Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
The film itself may not have been all that great, but the visual effects in The Creator are breathtakingly real. The film’s sci-fi universe is bought to life in epic fashion and they stood out to me as one of the movie’s best qualities. As much as I’d love it to win, I can see this one going to Godzilla Minus One for how it created astounding visuals on such a tight budget (and yes, I understand how being a Japanese production impacts the costs). Nevertheless, it’s still impressive that they were able to bring the iconic Kaiju to life with such incredible detail. I’ve yet to see it myself, but from what I have seen, it looks more than worthy of the W.
Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Both this award and Costume Design are two-horse races between Poor Things and Barbie. It’s near-impossible to pick as they could both go either way. I can either see Poor Things taking home both, or them splitting one each… the question is, which one takes which. I’m going to stick by Poor Things here and say that its fantasy- and surrealism-inspired sets will get it the win. It’s the most impressive and memorable element of the film, so I feel like the academy will recognise that here.
Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
I’m doing it. Despite believing Poor Things has the superior costuming, I think the Academy will throw another award Barbie’s way simply because costume design is synonymous with Barbie. It makes sense, but only time will tell.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
This is an easy one – just hand the Oscar to Maestro. As soon as I finished the film, my first thought was that there’s no way anything comes close to taking this award from it. The makeup artists who aged Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan both up and down did a phenomenal job. It’s some of the best and most realistic makeup I’ve ever seen be applied to a film. It’s usually always somewhat noticeable, but not here. If you somehow didn’t know who Bradley Cooper was, you’d buy into the makeup and not even question it – that’s how good it is.
Predictions in Additional Categories
Documentary (Feature)
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Documentary (Short Subject)
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island In Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
International Feature Film
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
Short Film (Animated)
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Short Film (Live Action)
The After
Invincinble
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
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