Hollywood’s night of nights is finally upon us and boy are we in store for a big one. Last year was all about Oppenheimer, with the juggernaut the favourite to take out nearly every one of its nominated categories. This time however there’s competition across most of the categories. The two big frontrunners for Best Picture remain Anora, which has 6 total nominations, and Conclave, which has a total of 8. They may be the favourites but they’re far from the most nominated. Sitting at the top with 13 nominations is Emilia Pérez, but the irony is it most likely won’t win more than 3 of those. Regardless of how strong its nomination is, there’s fierce competition from the likes of The Brutalist (with 10 nominations) and The Substance (with 5 nominations). Despite competing in 8 categories, I’m predicting A Complete Unknown to go home empty handed unless Timothée Chalamet can pull off a Best Actor win. Then there’s Wicked, the blockbuster with 10 nominations that has a strong chance in the more technical categories.
I’m excited for the big night as I’m predicting my predictions to fall apart due to some shocking upsets that are bound to unfold.
My official prediction will be highlighted in RED
My personal choice will be highlighted in GREEN.
If you don’t see an option highlighted in GREEN that’s because it’s the same as my prediction.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
With the competition in this Oscars race shaping up to be one of the tightest in recent years, I can’t be more excited for this award. Funnily enough my top 5 films of the year are all nominated for Best Picture, making it a tough choice. While it has no chance of actually claiming the win, Dune: Part Two is my personal winner. It’s a big, mainstream sci-fi film, and while it’s incredible it’s also not the type of film that claims this award. For me it’s a race between Anora, Conclave and maybe The Brutalist. I’d say Emilia Pérez too, but I think that hype train has left the station. My prediction is that Anora has too much momentum going into this weekend for anyone to overtake it, and will secure the win. However Conclave is a strong contender and did just take out the SAG equivalent of Best Picture, so it could steal it. Then there’s The Brutalist, which is quite acclaimed so has an outside shot.
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
This is a close two horse race, made even closer by Timothée Chalamet taking home the SAG award, but I think there’s no stopping Adrien Brody plowing through with the win. His performance is instrumental in ensuring The Brutalist is as good as it is, and it’s a performance that lingers beyond the end of the film. I haven’t seen A Complete Unknown, so I can’t speak on Chalamet personally, but the word is he’s incredible so it would be a deserving win. My personal pick however goes to Ralph Fiennes – his performance in Conclave is the best of the year and he’s phenomenal at every turn.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
This is brutal. On one hand you have Demi Moore, a veteran actor with a celebrated and well-respected career who is nominated for her first-ever Oscar. On the other hand you have Mikey Madison, a breakout star who elevates her film with a remarkable performance. Both are equally deserving of this win, and having to choose between them is tough. In saying that, I feel like the experience of Moore is going to push her over the edge, similar to Brendan Fraser’s emotional win in 2023. I’m also taking her as my personal pick as I feel she’s marginally more crucial to her film’s success than Madison’s… though don’t be surprised if it goes the other way.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Despite the fact that I haven’t seen A Real Pain, Kieran Culkin has taken home all or most of the telling precursor awards that help with this prediction. My personal pick would be Guy Pearce as I believe he even outshone Adrien Brody in some scenes, but this race is as good as over. Edward Norton could have an outside shot, but from what I’m hearing his campaign is a lost cause.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
I’ll get this out of the way, I feel bad for Ariana Grande. Her performance in Wicked is beautiful and perfectly true to the character – in any other year she’d probably win. But Zoe Saldaña is sweeping the category across every other award ceremony, so she’s in the box seat to take it. Rossellini and Jones are both great, but they don’t make as large of an impact on their respective films to have a shot here, I feel. While my personal pick is Grande, there’s no doubt Saldaña will win. Besides, Grande could win next year for Wicked: For Good.
Directing
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Backed by some big pre-Oscars wins, both Sean Baker and Brady Corbet are primed for a win here. As much as Adrien Brody is wonderful in The Brutalist, it really is a director’s film and Corbet crafted it with a deft touch. While I think Baker is going to win it for Anora, as he’s more deserving, I’m going to pivot my personal pick to give Coralie Fargeat a shoutout for The Substance. While I don’t think she’ll break through that top two, her directing was incredible in getting every piece of The Substance to fall together so neatly.
Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
While I’m not as big of a fan of The Brutalist than most, there’s no denying how stunning its visuals are. Regardless of the narrative and whether we’re on a tight interior or grand exterior shot, every scene is presented like an artwork. Here’s where things get tricky – Greig Fraser won back in 2022 for Dune, and I’d argue that Dune: Part Two is even more breathtaking. So it could slide in for a win if the Academy was feeling very generous. As much as Nosferatu is stunning, I don’t feel it has the pull that Dune: Part Two has in going up against The Brutalist.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
This is almost the first real 100% lock so far. It’s hard to imagine a world where Conclave, a film that thrives on its stellar dialogue, wonderful story and captivating screenplay doesn’t win. I mean, the exceptional monologues alone are enough to secure this a win… so that’s enough said.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Well well well, we have another tough one on our hands. The screenplay for both Anora and The Substance are above and beyond exceptional. World-class writing lines both films – I was glued to my screen and captivated by the dialogue throughout both experiences. As if trying to decide between the two of them wasn’t hard enough, you throw in the fact that A Real Pain has also been sharing the wins in this category across other award ceremonies. Getting this prediction right is such a crapshoot – on one hand if Anora wins this it will be primed to win Best Picture, but maybe the Academy will use this opportunity to highlight The Substance. I want to predict The Substance, but I have to be sensible and go with Anora as I feel the odds are too far in its favor.
Animated Feature Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
I mean… there’s nothing to be said. The Wild Robot is the undisputed best animated film of the year and I will start a riot if anything else wins.
Film Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
Interestingly, all five nominees here are also nominated for Best Picture. In saying that, could this be a precursor for who will win the big award? By that logic I would have to give my prediction here as Anora, but I think all signs are pointing to Conclave thanks to its win history. The difference being Conclave’s editing presents a tense, claustrophobic thriller where you’re trapped in the Vatican, while Anora’s creates a rollercoaster of chaos that’s equally as transfixing. Personally, I’d hand Anora the win, but I’d be happy with either one.
Music (Original Score)
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
This is another tough category to pick. The Brutalist is potentially the frontrunner, but I didn’t respond to that score as much. Conclave is wonderfully tense thanks to its stringy, eerie score. Wicked has a great score, but it’s the soundtrack that shines so that may result in it losing votes. The Wild Robot’s moving, emotion-heavy score is integral to the film’s success. Lastly, Emilia Pérez is just happy to be here. Personally, I’ll have to go with Conclave even though I think The Wild Robot is equally as deserving. However will it be able to trump the favourite in The Brutalist? I don’t think so.
Music (Original Song)
“El Mal”, Emilia Pérez
“The Journey”, The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird”, Sing Sing
“Mi Camino”, Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late”, Elton John: Never Too Late
Having heard all the songs but only seen Emilia Pérez, there’s not a single nominee that stands out to me as Oscar-worthy. That being said, “El Mal” is plastered all over the film’s marketing and Zoe Saldaña’s Oscars campaign, so it’s going to win.
Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
This is the zone where Dune: Part Two is really going to shine. The sound design is utterly exceptional. The deep, booming audio that accompanies so many in-universe things such as thumpers and sandworms are as breathtaking as the visuals. The film is a wholly immersive experience thanks to the heart-pounding sound, hence why it should win. The only threat to this win is A Complete Unknown. Being a film about music makes it naturally a strong contender, much like Sound of Metal from a few years ago. I really hope Dune wins it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s stolen from under its now.
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
It’s crazy to think that none of the recent Planet of the Apes films, which have some of the most seamless visuals, have taken home a win for Visual Effects. But when you’re coming up against the likes of Dune: Part Two, it really isn’t a fair competition. While my personal pick and my prediction is Dune, I would love to see one of my favourite franchises get the win. The apes in Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes are the most lifelike apes we’ve seen on screen, so that needs to get recognised at some point… right?
Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Finally, Wicked fans, these next two categories are your time to shine. While this award is stacked with great contenders, from The Brutalist erecting an architectural marvel for under 10 million dollars to Nosferatu bringing an eerie, fictional German town to life, Wicked is bringing this home. Wicked does a phenomenal job at bringing the land of Oz to life in a way that makes the most fantastical land feel so real and gorgeous, so it’s a no-brainer.
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Not to sound like a broken record here, but it’s Wicked. The costuming of Glinda and Elphaba alone is enough to land this film the win. I mean, the green and pink motifs are so synonymous with the film’s marketing that it’s impossible to avoid. Sure, Conclave, Nosferatu and Gladiator II have great costume design, but they don’t even hold a flame to Wicked’s accomplishments.
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
If I had to pick one category that The Substance was a lock to win, it would be this right here. Makeup and hairstyling is the bread and butter of what got people raving about The Substance. It’s a phenomenal example of body horror with a clear reliance on makeup and prosthetics over CGI. The best part is, the longer you watch the more incredible the prosthetics get, so just when you thought you’d seen the best, there’s more around the corner.
International Feature Film
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)
For the first time ever, and maybe even the last time, I’m elevating this category to the main section because I actually have something to say (despite only seeing one nominee). This category has been a breeze to predict in the last few years because you’d just pick the one that’s nominated for Best Picture and you’re all set. Except this time there’s TWO, and it could be all sorts of interesting. Emilia Pérez seems the obvious choice given its 13 nominations, but with me only predicting it to win 2/13, I believe this will go to I’m Still Here. I’ve not seen the movie, but the buzz surrounding it in the leadup to the Oscars has been eclipsing Emilia Pérez, so that’s my pick.
Predictions in Additional Categories
Documentary (Feature)
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
Documentary (Short Subject)
Death by Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Short Film (Animated)
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
Short Film (Live Action)
A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
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