The most exciting night in Hollywood is right around the corner, and we have a number of thrilling matchups to take a look at. In many categories it’s looking like a two-horse race between One Battle After Another and Sinners; the two juggernauts will be going toe-to-toe in a whopping 11 categories. Leading the pack on nominations is Sinners with a record-smashing 16 nominations. One Battle After Another follows with 13 nominations, while Guilermo Del Toro’s gothic romance, Frankenstein, isn’t too far off with 9. With the two heavy hitters being the favourites in so many awards, it means films like Hamnet (8 nominations) and Sentimental Value (9 nominations) are likely to only win one award apiece. Outside the above, there’ll be one-off wins for films like Avatar: Fire and Ash and F1; the types of films only recognised in technical categories.
All that being said, this night always has a surprise or two in store for us, so my predictions could fall apart just as easily as they could be spot on. The big question remains; will One Battle After Another sweep with its expected wins or will Sinners‘ late surge have it come out on top.
My official prediction will be highlighted in RED
My personal choice will be highlighted in GREEN.
If you don’t see an option highlighted in GREEN that’s because it’s the same as my prediction.
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
This is one of the most interesting Best Picture races in recent years. You have two polar opposite films; One Battle After Another and Sinners going head to head for the big award of the night. One Battle After Another has been the award season juggernaut; taking home most wins since it won Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, and so is the favourite. However Sinners has been peaking at the right time, winning a number of big awards including the top prize at the Actor Awards a fortnight ago. If we see Sinners sneaking a lot of other wins from under One Battle’s nose through the night, like Cinematography, Editing and Directing, then I’d say it’s almost certainly a lock. The rest of the playing field is too far behind to really be a chance, but we’ve seen stranger things happen. I believe they’re both very worthy, but I think Sinners is the film which will have the greater impact beyond this year.
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
In a wild twist of fate, Timothée Chalamet is on the verge of experiencing back-to-back losses for Best Actor despite being the frontrunner at one point. What must hurt even more is that I believe this is his best-ever performance. But coming in late with a tonne of momentum and a win at the Actor Awards is Michael B. Jordan. His dynamic dual performance in Sinners is a powerhouse that’s going to be near-impossible to stop at this point. I’d personally give it to Leonardo DiCaprio, but there’s been so little buzz about his performance that he almost doesn’t stand a chance.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
With respect to all the other performances, Jessie Buckley is already on her way home with this win. As good as Emma Stone is in Bugonia, and I’m sure all the other nominees are, the raw emotion and weight of Buckley’s performance is so gripping that she’s in a league of her own. There’s one point in the film where she lets out a guttural scream, and that moment alone is enough to convince me she deserves this.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
This is one of those awards I can see going in literally any direction. Sean Penn is wonderful in his arrogant, spiteful and disgusting role as Colonel Lockjaw. Everything down to his walk is a testament to his acting abilities, and so he’s my prediction. However Delroy Lindo benefits from an emotionally-impactful presence, while Benicio Del Toro is memorable for his fun, quirky and briefly powerful performance. Stellan Skarsgård has also been getting a lot of praise, giving him a good shot. My favourite of the bunch is Jacob Elordi, but he has the least chance based on momentum.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
If I looked at this on paper, I’d say Amy Madigan has no chance due to being in a straight horror film; a genre largely overlooked by the Academy. However she’s the well-deserving frontrunner despite a tonne of competition. Teyana Taylor makes a huge impact with her role despite not being present for much of the film. Then there’s Wunmi Mosaku with a poignant presence in a strong ensemble. The Sentimental Value duo have been getting high praise, but they might take each other out of contention by splitting the vote.
Directing
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Welcome to one of many two-horse races between the Best Picture favourites. If Paul Thomas Anderson expectedly takes home this win, you can expect One Battle After Another to win the top prize. His directing of that film is bar-none the best of the year; a feat of filmmaking that impressed me from start to finish. However if Ryan Coogler takes it for the way he pulled off an ambitious vision, you can almost lock Sinners in for Best Picture.
Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Once again it’s One Battle After Another vs Sinners. The latter is exceptionally well shot, with Autumn Durald’s efforts having a gorgeous impact on every single sequence. Every second of Sinners is a work of art thanks to her prowess in the field. It would be a very well deserved win and it’s my personal pick. All that being said, I think Michael Bauman’s cinematography in One Battle After Another is just too phenomenal and individually memorable to be beaten. Not only is the beauty of the first and second acts a delight, but it’s the way he captured the car chase in the final act that really cements this win.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Personally, Hamnet has the most impressive and emotionally impactful screenplay of the bunch. I even think Bugonia would be my number two for how captivating it is despite being almost entirely a conversation-based film. Despite that, the chaos of One Battle After Another is going to be hard to overcome. It accomplishes so much in its runtime that it’s almost unbelievable how intelligible it remains. This is maybe the closest thing we have to a lock in this list.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Without the competition of One Battle After Another, Sinners already has this one in the bag. If we’re talking about “original” screenplay, then a vampire film that’s predominantly about the human side of life, while focusing on music and racism in America, is the only correct choice here.
Best Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
Here we have the rare instance of an inaugural Oscar. With no history to base this prediction off, I have to look at the films themselves. Of the above nominees, there’s no question Sinners is most memorable for its impeccable casting across the board. Every role is filled with the best performer for what the film needed to accomplish, and thus it will almost certainly be etched in the history books.
Animated Feature Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
I mean just looking at the above list, there’s nothing that reached the height and cultural impact of KPop Demon Hunters. Much like when Frozen came out, you couldn’t step out of your house or browse social media for even a minute without seeing its immediate impact. The other films may be good, but they don’t hold a flame to the cultural icon that KPop Demon Hunters has become.
Film Editing
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Don’t be surprised if Sinners wins this. Some of the editing in that film is stellar, especially when coupled with the cinematography. But One Battle After Another is on another level in this field. Similar to why I think it will win Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography, it’s pure chaos that’s turned into a cohesive film thanks to all its technical areas, including the editing. The first 30 minutes alone is an editing feat, so I’ll say it’s close to a lock.
Music (Original Score)
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Looking at the nominees, there’s no way the one film that has music as a central theme is going to lose. The other nominees all have fantastic scores, with Max Richter and Alexandre Desplat among those names, but it’s Ludwig Göransson’s brilliance that will bring this home for Sinners.
Music (Original Song)
“Dear Me”, Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden”, KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied To You”, Sinners
“Sweet Dreams of Joy”, Viva Verdi!
“Train Dreams”, Train Dreams
If you don’t want to call this a lock-in for “Golden”, you could say “I Lied To You” has a chance. But the fact of the matter is that the latter doesn’t have much sway outside of the film itself. What I mean is that “Golden” is everywhere; it’s an earworm and the iconic anthem of the film, so it really is an uphill battle for anything else to even compete.
Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirât
If history is anything to go by, a racing film is sure to take this win if in contention. Sinners definitely has a shot and isn’t outside of the realm of possibility, but this is F1’s Oscar to lose. Ford v Ferrari swept both sound Oscars back in 2020, so there’s no reason for F1 to lose here. The sound in that film is integral to the exhilarating racing scenes, so it should be a landslide in the voting.
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Talk about a slam dunk. There’s three certainties in life: death, taxes and every Avatar film winning for Best Visual Effects. Fire and Ash is awe-inspiring and breathtaking from start to finish; a film that pushes the boundaries of visual effects beyond anything we’ve seen before. If anything else wins this, I call bullshit.
Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Next up we have the three categories in which Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein is going to wipe the floor with the competition. Nothing in the above list screams “production design” quite so loud as this gothic romance. Every set is grand and intricately detailed, evoking a distinct gothic vibe that’s as beautiful as (if not more beautiful than) GDT’s other films.
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Sure, Avatar: Fire and Ash did design the costumes physically, and sure, Sinners has some stunning period costumes, but they’re not Frankenstein. The costumes in Frankenstein are like characters in and of themselves. Every time Mia Goth changes into a new vibrant, flowy, elaborate outfit it’s the focus of the entire scene. It’s not just the extravagant that’s impressive either; the dark, dirty costumes of both the Creature and Victor Frankenstein are just as beautiful. If anything else wins here it would be an injustice.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Once again, Sinners has a very good shot. The hairstyling and makeup is one of the elements that makes the film as beautiful as it is. I’m also sure the makeup in The Smashing Machine is something to behold. But when it comes to making a memorable impact, it’s Frankenstein that’s bringing home this win. Even discounting the hairstyling, it’s the makeup on the creature that gives this film the ammunition to win.
International Feature Film
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
It Was Just an Accident (France)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirât (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Just like last year, we’re faced with two films from this category also being nominated for Best Picture; Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. Having not seen any of the nominees, and going purely off momentum and number of nominations, I’m going to have to go with Sentimental Value. With nine nominations and the possibility it doesn’t win any of them, I feel the Academy will reward it here.
Predictions in Additional Categories
Documentary (Feature)
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
Documentary (Short Subject)
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strengeness
Short Film (Animated)
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Short Film (Live Action)
Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
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