Contrary to last year’s Oscars, this year’s award categories are filled with toss-ups that could honestly go one of many ways. A number of categories have two or three strong contenders, with not many that are guaranteed locks. Heading into the 95th Academy Awards, Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the way with 11 nominations, while The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front follow close behind with 9 nominations each. My guess is that Everything Everywhere will walk away with the most wins, but I wouldn’t be surprised if AQotWF makes the most of all of its last-minute buzz. All I know it that this is poised to be a dramatic night with some shoe-ins maybe not being as secure as initially believed. Which film will sweep the awards? Which films will go home empty-handed? Here I’ll do my best to predict who will win, while letting you know who I would pick if it were up to me.
My official prediction will be highlighted in RED
My personal choice will be highlighted in GREEN.
If you don’t see an option highlighted in GREEN that’s because it’s the same as my prediction.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
As with every year, all eyes are on Best Picture. As much as it seems like Everything Everywhere All at Once has this one locked, I don’t think it’s that simple. I could see All Quiet on the Western Front coming from behind to nab the award. I think there’s many other nominees that are more deserving than the war epic, but the late push for votes could prove to be huge. Avatar: The Way of Water is my personal pick for Best Picture, although I’m aware it has a 0% chance of winning. Then there’s The Banshees of Inisherin with an outside shot… but it’s going to be hard to topple the frontrunner.
Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
This is one of the toughest awards to pick. It’s a two horse race between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler – both delivered phenomenal performances that greatly elevated their respective films. Personally, I think Brendan Fraser nailed his performance perfectly and should win for the emotionally riveting display he puts on. But on the other hand, Austin Butler completely vanishes into the role of Elvis like no one else could have. I have a feeling voters will just get Brendan over the line, but it will go down to the wire either way.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
In my opinion, Cate Blanchett delivered the best performance of the year in all categories. The acting masterclass she puts on in Tár is truly next level – her best performance to date. However, what Michelle Yeoh brings to Everything Everywhere All at Once is also incredible. She nails the comedy, she delivers kick-ass action scenes and she hits each dramatic beat. I really hope the academy goes with Cate, but I think Michelle might just edge her out. Plus, this is Michelle’s first Oscar nomination and it’s such a wild and unconventional role – another reason I feel like voters will side with her.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Now this one should be a lock – Ke Huy Quan. I loved the performances from both Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin, but I have to give my personal pick to Ke Huy Quan for his comeback appearance in Everything Everywhere All at Once. The way he goes from dramatic to comedic at the drop of a hat is wonderful to watch, and he really elevates the material when on screen. I also think Brendan and Barry, coming from the same movie, will steal votes off each other – paving the way for Ke Huy Quan to walk away with the win.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
This is one of the toughest of the night – I feel like all of these supporting performances add to their respective films, just not in ways that were clearly Oscar-worthy to me. If I was to pick one that was the most notable to me it would be Angela Bassett. And I think that’s how the Academy will vote too. Of all of these performances, it’s Angela’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever performance that stands out the most, so it should draw the majority of the votes. Though I also wouldn’t be shocked if literally anyone else took it home.
Directing
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
For me, what Martin McDonagh accomplishes with The Banshees of Inisherin is absolutely spectacular. He crafted a brilliant film that was a unified work of art from the narrative to the visuals and beyond. However I think the pull of Everything Everywhere All at Once will be too strong. That narrative is a chaotic concoction of ideas that Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert somehow wrangle into a cohesive (somewhat) film. The way they bring every element together is great, so it would be a well-deserved win. If the Daniels don’t take it, I would say the next most likely to win would be Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. I may not have loved the movie, but there’s no denying the fact that he put his heart and soul into it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy recognises that too.
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Thoughts
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Well, this is a category where Avatar: The Way of Water and The Batman somehow didn’t feature despite showcasing exceptional cinematography. With those two out of the picture, this is a no-brainer – All Quiet on the Western Front should get this. Tár is exceptionally well shot with beautiful cinematography throughout, and Elvis is also shot beautifully, but nothing is touching All Quiet. The way that film captures the scope of a WW1 battlefield is mesmerising, enhancing the sense of dread with plenty of breathtaking shots throughout.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Believe it or not, this is a tough one. For me, Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is the best adapted screenplay of the year, but it unfortunately won’t win. That being said, I’m not confident in my All Quiet on the Western Front pick. I think it’s incredibly well-written and very well deserved, but it could be a three or four horse race. I’ve not seen Women Talking, but I’ve seen it receive a lot of praise for its screenplay, so it has every chance to win. Meanwhile, I wouldn’t count out Top Gun: Maverick – it could come out of nowhere and pull off an impressive win… time will tell.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Once again, Everything Everywhere All at Once is probably going to prevent The Banshees of Inisherin from receiving another award. I love what Martin McDonagh accomplished with that very poignant and emotionally deep screenplay and feel like he deserves this. However, this could be the Academy’s way of sharing the love with Banshees, assuming Everything does get the win for Best Picture.
Animated Feature Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
I mean… do we even need to ponder where this Oscar is going? Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the only real contender, or at least it should be. It’s also the only one of these films I’ve seen, so I can’t really speak on the quality of the others. Guillermo del Toro’s dark, gothic take on the story is emotional, beautifully-animated and directed with a lot of passion – surely securing its win.
Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
When it comes to editing, I don’t think any of the other nominees can compete with the way Everything Everywhere All at Once managed to splice together the multiverse in increasingly creative ways. As an outside shot you might see Tár or even The Banshees of Inisherin take it. As great as that may be, it’s an unlikely outcome.
Music (Original Score)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
This is yet another tough category to pick. Of all of these films, the score in All Quiet on the Western Front is the one that stood out the most. It’s heartbreaking and intense, greatly enhancing the horrors displayed on screen in every moment. Meanwhile, John Williams has a lot of clout behind him, so he could pull a win for The Fabelmans as that score resonated with many people. I have not seen Damien Chazelle’s Babylon, so I can’t speak on Justin Hurwitz’s score, but he’s immensely talented so I wouldn’t count him out.
Music (Original Song)
“Applause”, Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand”, Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up”, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu”, RRR
“This Is a Life”, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Talk about a tight race. I honestly have no idea how this will turn out. Firstly, I think Lady Gaga’s “Hold My Hand” is the song of the year – it brilliantly encapsulates the vibe of Top Gun: Maverick and is a great listen even outside of the film. Then there’s Rihanna’s “Lift Me Up“, which is an emotional song on its own, made even more poignant when linked with the impact of Chadwick Boseman’s passing. Lastly, RRR has a lot of vocal fans… so that could have resulted in “Naatu Naatu” getting enough exposure to grab a huge win.
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
There’s two potential outcomes here. Either Top Gun: Maverick wins what may be its only award of the night, or All Quiet on the Western Front uses its advantage as a war film to secure an easy victory. I’d have to go with Top Gun here since I can still recall the awesome booming sound of the fighter jets so long after having watched the movie. Avatar: The Way of Water was my favourite film of the year, but what Top Gun accomplished with its aerial sequences is incredible.
Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Whether you liked Avatar: The Way of Water or not, no one can dispute the fact that this is a guaranteed win. Those other four nominees should just be happy they got nominated alongside one of James Cameron’s masterpieces. When you look at the groundbreaking visual effects that bring a fictional world to life, there’s no film in history that has done it better. It would be a robbery if any other film were to win – in fact it’s already a crime that James wasn’t nominated for his directing.
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Following on from visual effects, I think Avatar: The Way of Water should run away with this one. However I can see Elvis stealing it from right under James Cameron’s nose. I honestly think it’s a much tighter race than one would imagine – the 60s-era sets in Elvis are fantastic and recreate the look to near perfection. Meanwhile Babylon’s lavish sets may swing a lot of votes, so I wouldn’t be surprised, but I haven’t seen it so I can’t speak on it. Time will tell.
Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Back when Black Panther featured in the 2019 Academy Awards, it deservedly won this award. As a result I can see this one easily going to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. However I’m going to go out on a limb and say the incredible costume design in Elvis will be enough to get it over the line. It may not pull many awards, but I believe this is one it will strut away with.
Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Once again my prediction goes to Elvis. Is it crazy to pick one film to win for Production Design, Costume Design, and Hair and Makeup? Maybe, but I’m going to take the punt. I think this award should go to The Whale for the incredible prosthetics applied to Brendan Fraser, and it very well may, but Elvis might be too strong (even with the presence of Tom Hanks).
Predictions in Additional Categories
Documentary (Feature)
All that Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Documentary (Short Subject)
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Short Film (Animated)
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Short Film (Live Action)
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
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